6/4/2022
Mission
Mission
- 172 MVP candidates from 2010-2022
- With 40 total variables
## mvppts ptsmax share games mpg ppg rbpg astpg ## 113 2 1010 0.002 62 33.4 25.1 8.3 4.8 ## 82 1198 1300 0.922 80 32.7 23.8 4.3 7.7 ## 75 26 1250 0.021 69 36.2 23.2 11.1 2.6 ## 36 889 1210 0.735 66 38.6 28.0 8.0 3.5 ## 25 522 1210 0.431 79 38.8 26.7 7.5 7.0
- And 34 more variables…
Sentiment Analysis
- Repeated for all ~3700 Reddit post titles
vader[3] package in R made it very straightforward
[3] https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/vader/index.html
Sentiment Analysis
| Example Text | Sentiment Score (VADER[2]) |
|---|---|
| According to Dirk Nowitzki, reporters should pay no attention to Jason Terry after games | -0.382 |
| [Draymond Green in 2010] “the world is flat fool” | -0.440 |
| Stephen Curry is 5th All-Time in career True Shooting Percentage at 62.0%, and 1st All-Time among guards | 0.421 |
| [Murphy] Serge Ibaka interrupts DeRozan’s scrum to ask what he got the team for Christmas. Told nothing, Ibaka says he’s going to go play with John Wall. | 0.026 |
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Modeling
Modeling
Important Features
Important Features
Results
- Model was able to predict the MVP winner with 77% accuracy (2010-2022)
- With average deviation from actual rank of 0.41
Predictions for 2022 Season
| Player | Rank | Predicted Rank | Sentiment Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nikola Jokic | 1 | 1✅ | 0.94 |
|
Joel Embiid | 2 | 2✅ | -0.22 |
|
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 3 | 3✅ | 1.00 |
Full Predictions
Future
- Test out model midseason
- Add text sentiment analysis of famous critics like Stephen A Smith
- Use comments instead of headlines
- Comedy scores
- Account for jargon
Reflection
- Learned the arduous task of gathering data
- How we different models can be used
Resources Used For Presentaiton
- R package hexagons from https://www.tidymodels.org/
- Player headshots from https://www.basketball-reference.com/
- Diagrams created on https://app.diagrams.net